A $50 bet on the Dodgers in NLCS Game 3 paid $27.93 on the -179 moneyline or $64.50 on the -1.5 run line at +129, odds listed by ESPN on Oct. 13, 2026.
The run line pays more because it loses every one-run win. At those prices it beats the moneyline only if at least 68% of the Dodgers' wins come by two runs or more.
The prices come from ESPN's Championship Series odds tracker, which listed the Brewers +148 on the moneyline and +1.5 at -156 for the same game. Milwaukee led the series 2-0.
Dodgers Game 3, priced both ways
| Dodgers moneyline | Dodgers -1.5 run line | |
|---|---|---|
| Price, NLCS Game 3, ESPN, Oct. 13, 2026 | -179 | +129 |
| Bet wins when | Dodgers win by any margin | Dodgers win by 2 or more runs |
| Profit on a $50 winning bet | $27.93 | $64.50 |
| Total returned on a $50 winning bet | $77.93 | $114.50 |
| Break-even win rate (implied probability) | 64.2% | 43.7% |
| Result if Dodgers win by exactly one run | Wins $27.93 | Loses $50 |
| Hold at DraftKings, BettingUSA | 3.88% | 3.79% |
| Hold at FanDuel, BettingUSA | 3.91% | 4.38% |
| Hold at BetMGM, BettingUSA | 4.61% | 4.15% |
| Hold at Caesars, BettingUSA | 4.12% | 4.05% |
Moneyline
The moneyline pays if the favorite wins by any score. At -179, a bettor risks $179 to win $100, so $50 returns $27.93 in profit.
The price implies a 64.2% chance of a Dodgers win. A bettor who rates the Dodgers above that figure has a positive expected value on the moneyline. Below it, the bet loses money over time.
Its weakness is the payout. A heavy favorite at -179 has to win about two of every three games to break even, and one loss wipes out almost two wins.
The moneyline fits a bettor who expects the favorite to win and has no view on the margin.
- Wins on one-run results, which BettingUSA puts at about 28% of MLB games
- Lowest bar to clear: the favorite only has to win
- $50 at -179 earns $27.93, about 56 cents per dollar risked
- Break-even rate of 64.2% at the Game 3 price
Run line -1.5
The -1.5 run line pays only if the favorite wins by two runs or more. FOX Sports describes it as baseball's version of a point spread.
In exchange for that condition, the Dodgers moved from -179 to +129. A $50 bet returns $64.50 in profit, more than twice the moneyline payout.
The break-even rate falls to 43.7%. That figure covers wins by two or more only. A one-run Dodgers win loses the full $50 that the moneyline would have turned into $27.93, a gap of $77.93 on one result.
The line almost never moves off 1.5 runs, according to BettingUSA's run line guide. The price changes instead, which is why big favorites flip to plus money. The full mechanics are covered in the standard -1.5 run line primer on this site.
The run line fits a bettor who expects the favorite to win comfortably, for example on a starting pitching edge or against a weak bullpen.
- Plus money on a favorite: $64.50 profit on $50 at +129
- Break-even rate of 43.7% at the Game 3 price
- Loses on every one-run win
- Hold ran higher than the moneyline at FanDuel, 4.38% against 3.91%, per BettingUSA
Where the break-even margin sits
The comparison comes down to one ratio: the run line's break-even rate divided by the moneyline's. The result is the share of the favorite's wins that must come by two or more runs before the run line is the better bet.
Dodgers Game 3, $50 either way
Prices from ESPN, Oct. 13, 2026. Implied probability for a minus price is risk divided by (risk + 100). For a plus price it is 100 divided by (price + 100).
| Moneyline -179, implied win rate | 179 ÷ 279 = 64.2% |
|---|---|
| Run line +129, implied cover rate | 100 ÷ 229 = 43.7% |
| Share of wins that must be by 2+ runs | 43.7 ÷ 64.2 = 68% |
| Share of wins that can be by exactly 1 run | 32% |
| $50 profit if Dodgers win by 2+ | Moneyline $27.93, run line $64.50 |
| $50 result if Dodgers win by 1 | Moneyline +$27.93, run line -$50 |
If more than about 32% of the Dodgers' wins would come by one run, the moneyline is the better price. If fewer, the run line is.
The same ratio held across other October 2026 favorites in the sources. BettingUSA's example of the Rays at -170 and +120 (63% and 45.5% implied) needs about 72% of wins by two or more. The Yankees at -136 and +166 in Wild Card Game 2, per CBS Sports, need about 65%.
The gap widens near a pick'em. The Dodgers were -110 on the moneyline and +172 on the run line in NLCS Game 2, FanDuel Research reported. That needs about 70% of wins by two or more. FanDuel described the spread between those prices as a measure of how much harder it is to win by two than to win. The Brewers won that game 7-4.
Hold is the second factor, and it depends on the book. BettingUSA measured DraftKings at 3.79% on run lines against 3.88% on moneylines, and BetMGM at 4.15% against 4.61%. FanDuel went the other way, at 4.38% on run lines against 3.91% on moneylines.
BettingUSA concluded that run lines are not consistently cheaper or dearer than moneylines across books.
Price shopping is the third factor. For ALCS Game 2, ESPN listed the Rays at -143 and -1.5 at +159. The Spread listed -140 and +155 for the same game and reported that the run line price "fell 65 cents before first pitch" while 80% of spread tickets were on Tampa Bay.
During a game, the same ratio applies to live prices. Unabated's MLB odds tools let a user enter the score and inning to generate fair live moneyline and run line prices for comparison with a book's posted number.
Which one to bet
At the Game 3 prices, the run line on the Dodgers is the better bet only for a bettor who expects at least 68% of their wins to come by two runs or more. The moneyline is the better bet for anyone who expects more than about a third of their wins to be one-run games.
A bettor with no view on the margin has no reason to take the run line. The higher payout is the price of the extra condition, not a bonus. BettingUSA puts one-run games at about 28% of all MLB games, close to the 32% limit at these prices.
Whichever market is chosen, the number at the book matters as much as the market. FanDuel's run line hold was 0.47 points above its moneyline hold in BettingUSA's comparison, while DraftKings and BetMGM priced run lines more cheaply. The method for testing any price against a personal estimate is set out in calculate EV for any wager.
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