To hedge a bet, you bet the other side of it so that you win something whichever way the game goes. The stake that locks in the same profit either way is your ticket's total payout divided by the decimal odds of the other side:

Hedge stake = payout / decimal odds of the hedge

A $50 futures ticket that now returns $800, hedged at -150 (decimal 1.667), needs $480 on the other side to lock in $270 whoever wins. That is the whole method. The rest of this page is when it is worth doing, the other two kinds of hedge (saving your stake, and middling a live line), and what a hedge costs you - because it always costs something.

The three hedges and their formulas

Hedge Stake on the other side What you get
Lock the same profit Payout / hedge decimal odds The same profit whoever wins
Save your stake Original stake / (hedge decimal odds - 1) Break even if the hedge wins, most of the upside if yours does
Middle a moved line About the same as your first bet, at the new number Both bets win if the result lands between the two numbers

Decimal odds from American odds: for a plus price, 1 + odds/100 (+300 is 4.0); for a minus price, 1 + 100/odds (-150 is 1.667). The cash out and hedge calculator takes American odds and does the conversion.

Hedging a futures bet

Futures are where hedging started: a long-odds ticket bought months ago, a team that got to the final, and a payout big enough to matter.

A $50 title ticket at +1500, team now in the final

Ticket$50 at +1500: returns $800 ($750 profit)
Final, moneylineYour team +130, the other team -150
Hedge stake$800 / 1.667 = $480 on the other team at -150
Your team wins$800 - $480 hedge - $50 ticket = $270 profit
Other team winsHedge returns $800; $800 - $480 - $50 = $270 profit
Save-the-stake instead$50 / 0.667 = $75 on the other team: $675 profit if yours wins, $0 if not

Hedging locks in $270. Letting it ride is worth about $286 on average: the no-vig chance of your team is 42.0% (43.5% / 103.5%), and 42.0% x $750 - 58.0% x $50 = $286. The $16 difference is the vig paid on the $480 hedge.

Hedging the last leg of a parlay

A parlay with all but one leg won is a single bet on the last leg that pays the parlay's full return, so it hedges the same way. It is also the case where a hedge most often beats the book's cash out offer, because parlay cash out offers tend to carry a bigger cut - see when to cash out a live bet for how to price the offer.

$100 three-leg parlay, two legs won

Ticket$100, returns $600
Last leg, 4th quarterYour team -400, the other side +300 (decimal 4.0)
Hedge stake$600 / 4.0 = $150 on the other side
Your team wins$600 - $150 - $100 = $350 profit
Other side winsHedge returns $600; $600 - $150 - $100 = $350 profit
The book's cash out offer$410 back, a $310 profit

The hedge locks in $40 more than cashing out - as long as a second book has the other side near +300 and you can place it before the line moves.

Middling a live line

Live betting creates a third kind of hedge. When a live line moves a long way from the number you bet, betting the other side at the new number leaves a window where both bets win - a middle - and costs little if the game lands outside it.

NBA totals move the most. Say you bet Over 221.5 pregame at -110. The first half is played at a fast pace and the live total climbs to 231.5. Bet Under 231.5 at -110 for the same stake:

Over 221.5 pregame, Under 231.5 live, $110 each at -110

Final total 221 or fewerOver loses $110, Under wins $100: -$10
Final total 222 to 231Both win: +$200
Final total 232 or moreOver wins $100, Under loses $110: -$10

You risk $10 to win $200. The middle only has to land about 1 time in 21 (10 / 210 = 4.8%) to break even, and a 10-point window in an NBA total lands far more often than that.

The catch is that the live total rarely gives you ten points for nothing - it moved because the pace and the shooting moved, and it is often right. The NBA live total calculator shows where the pace so far points, so you can see whether the live number has overshot. The same idea works on a live point spread that swings after a big run.

What a hedge costs you

A hedge is a second bet, and every bet pays the book's margin. So a hedge always returns a little less on average than letting the ticket ride - $16 in the futures example above. You are paying for certainty, the way you pay for insurance.

That is worth paying when:

  • the swing matters to your bankroll. If the ticket's payout is a large share of everything you bet with, locking in part of it is sensible. Sizing your bets so this rarely happens is what the Kelly criterion is for.
  • you would not bet the side you are holding at today's price. Holding a ticket is the same as betting its current value on it now. If you would not make that bet, hedging is consistent.
  • you can get a better price than the market's. Shop the hedge across books; half a point or 10 cents of price is often the difference between a hedge that costs and one that is free.

And it is not worth paying when the payout is small next to your bankroll, or when the price on the other side is poor. Hedging every ticket out of nerves turns a winning bettor into a break-even one, one vig at a time.

Hedging step by step

  1. Write down the ticket's total payout

    Stake plus profit, as the bet slip shows it.

  2. Find the best price on the other side

    Check every book you have an account with - the hedge pays its vig, so the best price matters most here.

  3. Convert that price to decimal odds

    +130 is 2.30; -150 is 1.667.

  4. Divide payout by decimal odds

    That is the stake that locks the same profit both ways. For save-the-stake, divide your original stake by (decimal odds - 1) instead.

  5. Compare it with the cash out offer and with letting it ride

    The cash out calculator shows all three side by side.

  6. Place it while the price is there

    Live prices move between plays; a hedge priced at +300 that fills at +250 locks in less.

Questions

Divide your ticket's total payout by the decimal odds of the other side. That stake on the other side locks in the same profit whichever way the game goes. To only get your stake back if the hedge wins, divide your original stake by the hedge's decimal odds minus 1.

It is insurance: it returns slightly less on average, because the hedge pays the book's margin, but removes the swing. It is worth it when the payout is a big share of your bankroll or you would not bet your side at the current price; not when the amount is small.

Wait until only one leg is left, then bet the other side of that leg with a stake of the parlay's payout divided by that side's decimal odds. It often beats the book's cash out offer on the parlay.

They do the same job. Cashing out sells the ticket back to your book at its price, with a cut; hedging buys the other side, often at another book, and only pays that bet's vig. Price both before you choose.

Bets on both sides of a game at two different numbers - Over 221.5 and Under 231.5, say - so that both win if the result lands between them. Live lines that move far from the pregame number create them.

Yes. Betting both sides at the same or different books is allowed; it is just two bets.

Further reading

Hedging is a pricing problem, and King Yao's Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting treats it as one - estimate the fair line, compare, act only on the gap. The rest of our reading list is in the best sports betting books.

Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting
King Yao

Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting

Best for: Turning an opinion into a priced bet

A trader's approach: estimate a fair line, compare it with the book's, and only bet the gap - with chapters on spreads, moneylines, totals, parlays, teasers and hedging.

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